BITCOIN PRICE BREAKDOWN BELOW $109K SUPPORT

CRITICAL BREAKDOWN CONFIRMATION

Bitcoin has broken below the critical $109,334 support level for the first time since June, marking a significant technical breakdown [NSW5heVMWiw @ 00:42]. This level represented a key daily support that had held through multiple wick attempts, but the market finally achieved a daily candle close below this threshold [NSW5heVMWiw @ 01:44]. The analyst emphasized that all previous touches were wicks above this level, making this the first confirmed daily open below $109,334 since June [NSW5heVMWiw @ 01:46].

RISING WEDGE PATTERN BREAKDOWN

The breakdown confirms Bitcoin's exit from a rising wedge pattern that had been forming over recent months [NSW5heVMWiw @ 01:36]. The analyst stated definitively that "we definitely broke the wedge" and considers this breakdown as "game over" with expectations of significant additional downside [NSW5heVMWiw @ 05:00]. The wedge breakdown occurred after Bitcoin failed to push higher toward $117,000-$118,000, instead reversing and breaking through the lower support [NSW5heVMWiw @ 06:42].

IMMEDIATE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

Following the breakdown, Bitcoin found immediate support around $103,372-$104,862, with multiple chart timeframes showing confluence at this zone [NSW5heVMWiw @ 05:09]. Current resistance has established at approximately $106,337, which represents a critical level for any bounce attempts [NSW5heVMWiw @ 05:15]. The analyst notes that if Bitcoin breaks below the $103,372 support, the next major support sits around $99,800, which would push Bitcoin below the psychologically important $100,000 level [NSW5heVMWiw @ 05:26].

LONGER-TERM DOWNSIDE TARGETS

The analyst projects significantly lower targets if the breakdown continues. The primary target is the 300-week moving average, currently sitting around $45,000-$50,000 [NSW5heVMWiw @ 17:02]. This would represent approximately a 61% drop from recent highs [NSW5heVMWiw @ 18:15]. In a worst-case scenario involving a major stock market crash, the analyst identifies support as low as $30,000-$35,000, which could represent up to an 82% decline [NSW5heVMWiw @ 18:20].

MACRO MARKET CONTEXT

The Bitcoin breakdown is occurring alongside concerning signals in traditional markets. Gold and silver have been pushing to parabolic levels, with gold reaching $4,377 before pulling back [NSW5heVMWiw @ 09:27]. The analyst views this precious metals surge as a warning sign that "something bad is about to happen" in broader markets [NSW5heVMWiw @ 11:11]. Historical analysis suggests that when markets crash, Bitcoin tends to fall harder than traditional indices - during the COVID crash, when the Dow dropped 38%, Bitcoin fell 65% [NSW5heVMWiw @ 14:05].

The analyst believes the AI bubble may be the next to pop, with tech companies significantly overvalued relative to their AI revenue [NSW5heVMWiw @ 12:41]. Combined with rising consumer debt, mortgage stress, and high repo rates in the auto sector, the economic backdrop suggests Bitcoin's breakdown may be the beginning of a broader market correction [NSW5heVMWiw @ 13:14].

TRADING IMPLICATIONS

As long as Bitcoin remains below $109,334, the bias remains decisively bearish with expectations of further downside [NSW5heVMWiw @ 06:08]. However, the analyst notes that even during a sustained decline, there will be bounce opportunities at key support levels for short-term traders to manage positions [NSW5heVMWiw @ 16:13]. The breakdown represents a critical shift in market structure that invalidates the bullish continuation scenario that was in play while this support held.