[00:28] Chipotle's Worst Drop Since 2012: Chipotle shares fell by the most since 2012 after CEO Scott Boatright warned of a "massive pullback of our core audience" with millennials and Gen Z suffering from unemployment and paycheck shrinkage affecting the business in a meaningful way.

[01:03] Kraft Heinz Warns of Decades-Worst Consumer Sentiment: Kraft Heinz CEO stated "We have now one of the worst consumer sentiments we have seen in decades as we go into the holiday season," with North America division sales falling 3.8% and volumes dropping significantly.

[02:21] FOMC Members Doubt Labor Market Weakness is Real: Fed Chair Powell revealed some FOMC committee members want to "take a step back and see whether there really are downside risks to the labor market" or if stronger growth is real, despite voting for rate cuts.

[05:37] Chipotle Cuts Outlook for Third Time This Year: The burrito chain downgraded full-year sales projections to "low single-digit range" decline from previously flat expectations, with comparable store sales rising slightly but missing Wall Street targets.

[08:06] 40% of Chipotle Customers Earn Under $100K and Are Struggling: Customers in their late 20s and early 30s are "particularly challenged due to unemployment, student loan debt and slower wage growth," with lower-income cohorts significantly cutting back on eating out.

[09:25] Companies Can't Pass Costs to Consumers Without Volume Collapse: Kraft Heinz facing ingredient inflation for meat and coffee but finding that passing costs to customers causes volumes to drop, demonstrating deflationary pressure rather than inflation.

[11:02] Consumer Confidence Diverged from Stocks After April: While some stock indexes soared from April lows as if trade war was the only negative, consumer confidence only recovered slightly and spent summer declining, vastly diverging from share prices.

[12:01] Holiday Spending Plans Down 3.9% on Gifts, 12% on Non-Gifts: Conference Board data shows consumers expect to spend 3.9% less on gifts and 12% less on non-gift items compared to last year in nominal terms, even worse in volume terms.

[13:02] Seasonal Hiring Announcements Collapsed 75% Year-Over-Year: Planned seasonal hires tracked by Challenger Gray were just one quarter (25%) of last year's levels at the same point, showing retailers are gravely concerned about the holiday season.

[14:09] Job-Finding Expectations at Near-Record Low of 44.9: Fed's survey of consumer expectations showed job-finding expectations dropped to 44.9 in August, a record low worse than the pandemic, barely recovering to 45.3 in September.

[15:05] Powell Acknowledges Rate Cuts Will Resume: Going off-script, Powell stated "If we do wind up resuming rate cuts, at some point we will," acknowledging the Fed is trying to end the cycle with labor market in good place under challenging circumstances.

[16:01] Inflation Holdouts Need Overwhelming Proof Before Accepting Weakness: Remaining tariff inflation believers at FOMC will need to see Amazon-level layoffs "replicated by every large company, big and small" before being fully convinced of labor market weakness.