NASDAQ Bull Case with November Seasonality

Trader Nick presents a comprehensive bullish case for NASDAQ and S&P 500 into year-end, built on multiple converging factors. Despite markets trading at all-time highs and appearing overbought, several fundamental and technical conditions support continued upside momentum [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 01:09].

**Technical Foundation**

The NASDAQ maintains strong technical positioning across all major simple moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day), providing clear signs of upward momentum [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 02:17]. This technical strength is reinforced by November's historically powerful seasonality - the 10-year average performance shows the stock market typically delivers very strong gains during this month [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 02:36].

**Fundamental Support**

GDP growth has significantly exceeded expectations, with actual results beating economist forecasts across multiple quarters [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 03:22]. This economic strength extends to consumer spending, where retail sales continue surpassing previous expectations, and services PMIs remain relatively intact [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 03:42]. These robust fundamentals occur alongside expectations for continued Federal Reserve interest rate cuts into year-end and 2026 [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 03:51].

**Trade Deal Catalyst**

A potential US-China trade agreement represents a major catalyst, as this was one of the biggest overhangs on the stock market [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 04:00]. Following the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea, President Trump rated it "12 out of 10" with Beijing calling results "hard won" [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 04:16]. The US agreed to cut the fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods from 20% to 10%, while China committed to massive soybean purchases and easier rare earth access [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 04:21]. Trump indicated a deal could be signed "pretty soon," though no ink is on paper yet [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 04:41].

**Consensus View**

Despite potential near-term volatility and possible gap-filling pullbacks, the confluence of trade deals, Fed rate cuts, strong corporate earnings, economic growth, technical momentum, and favorable seasonality all align in favor of bulls [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 05:03]. While unexpected geopolitical events could disrupt this outlook, the current known factors present a compelling case for continued rally into year-end [BIY3g0zDjTY @ 05:24]. The stock market has demonstrated remarkable resilience following the announcement, maintaining momentum even without a signed agreement [8LII4sQ_X2Y @ 00:57].