# Solana Support Breakdown Risk Below $172

## Overview
Solana is testing critical support at $172 with technical analysts warning of a potential ABC correction pattern that could target support zones between $117-$160 if the breakdown occurs. The asset has shown significant weakness following October's price action, with one analyst noting it's down nearly 25% over the past month and a half [DZMUo27Mqac @ 13:02].

## Critical Support Levels

### Immediate Support: $172-$178
More Crypto Online identifies $172 as the crucial October 10th low that must hold to prevent deeper correction [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 00:13]. The analyst specifies micro support at $178, which represents support for a potential wave 2 structure measured on the entire distance of wave 1 [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 03:02]. A break below this level would "open the trap door" to significantly lower prices [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 00:52].

### Secondary Support: $150-$160
If $172 fails, the next major support zone sits between $150-$160 [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 00:23]. This level aligns with previous structural swing lows in addition to Fibonacci retracement levels [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 00:37].

### Deep Correction Target: $117-$138
The most bearish scenario involves an ABC correction pattern targeting the $117 level as key support, with an intermediate zone at $117.40-$138.20 [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 00:28]. This would represent a complete A-wave down, B-wave up, C-wave down structure [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 01:25]. While the analyst notes this doesn't mean prices must go all the way down, it represents a "reasonable scenario" for the correction [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 01:17].

## Technical Structure Analysis

### Bearish Wave Pattern
The current price action shows only three-wave moves up rather than the five-wave impulse structure needed for bullish confirmation [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 02:22]. The analyst explains that for an upside reversal, Solana would need to form a diagonal structure with ABC patterns in both wave 1 and wave 2, but emphasizes that "because we don't have a five-wave move up from anywhere yet, at least the probabilities for higher prices are just unclear" [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 02:52].

### Broken Trust and Momentum
The October 10th price action "broke trust" according to market observers, with no meaningful strength seen since that date [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 01:42]. The analyst candidly states: "This is not bullish, nothing. I mean, I'm always looking for a bullish scenario, but when I don't see anything clearly, I mention it" [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 02:07].

## Alternative Bullish Scenario

### DataDash's Long-Term Perspective
Despite the bearish short-term setup, DataDash maintains a more optimistic longer-term view, stating that Solana's consolidation pattern could lead to "a pretty explosive move" with targets around $300 [DZMUo27Mqac @ 24:26]. He notes the current price action is building what could be "bull flags" in the consolidation region [DZMUo27Mqac @ 23:28].

DataDash acknowledges potential for revisiting the $150-$160 area but emphasizes this would be part of normal ranging behavior [DZMUo27Mqac @ 23:17]. He draws parallels to XRP's multi-year consolidation before its breakout, suggesting Solana may be "coiled up" for a significant move despite current weakness [DZMUo27Mqac @ 25:30].

### Required Reversal Signals
For bulls to regain control, More Crypto Online specifies clear requirements: at minimum, a micro five-wave move up (which hasn't formed yet), and ideally a break above previous swing highs around $202 or the October 13th high at $212 [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 03:34]. Any micro five-wave structure would provide an early signal that a low has formed [lT2f_gpTdBQ @ 04:04].

## Market Context
The weakness in Solana comes amid broader market uncertainty, with DataDash noting that positive macro news including Fed rate cuts and China tariff progress hasn't translated to price strength [DZMUo27Mqac @ 03:00]. He attributes the disconnect to technical range-bound behavior that often doesn't align with fundamental news in real-time [DZMUo27Mqac @ 11:28].

## Consensus View
Both analysts agree that Solana faces significant downside risk if $172 fails, though they differ on longer-term outlook. The immediate technical picture lacks bullish confirmation, with the ABC correction scenario presenting the primary risk. However, the consolidation could eventually resolve upward if key support levels hold and proper bullish wave structures develop.